What happened?  
On 7 July, Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated at his residence in Port-au-Prince. Hours later, Joseph Claude Joseph took charge as interim Prime Minister and stated: "A group of individuals who have not been identified... attacked the private residence of the President of the Republic and fatally injured the Head of State." He then declared Haiti to be in a state of siege.  A statement made by Claude – Ariel Henry, who Moïse suggested as Prime Ministerial replacement highlights the issue of leadership: "It's an exceptional situation. There is a bit of confusion. I am the Prime Minister in office."

On 8 July, amidst suspicions of external involvement, US President Joe Biden said: "We condemn this heinous act, stand ready to assist as we continue to work for a safe and secure Haiti."  Also on 8 July, Colombian Defense Minister Diego Molano, on the identity of the perpetrators, stated: "Interpol has officially requested information about the alleged perpetrators of this crime. Initially, the information indicates that they are Colombian citizens, retired members of the National Army."   

What is the background?
First, the assassination of President Moise. A heavily armed commando unit of 26 Colombians and two Haitian Americans is believed to behind the attack. The motive of the assassination remains unclear. While a section is accusing the outsiders - especially the mercenaries from Colombia, there are other versions also over the reasons behind his assassination.

Second, the post-assassination political crisis. According to the Haitian constitution, if the President abruptly departs, the head of the Supreme Court is to lead the government; but this position remains vacant since the former head's death. In this power vacuum, the National Assembly could select a new leader; but there is no National Assembly since legislative elections are interminably delayed. This leaves Claude in charge, yet the dilemma persists as Moïse had announced that Claude would be replaced by Ariel Henry, a neurosurgeon connected to the opposition. Despite politicians and other stakeholders expressing their displeasure in Claude taking charge, a transition seems unlikely amidst the crisis. 

Third, the pre-assassination political crises. Even before the assassination, Haiti was in chaos. The country was battered by protests, economic crises, and the pandemic. The crux of the problem was Moïse's illegitimate rule – him overstaying his mandate garnered strong opposition and subsequent countrywide protests. Limiting judicial review and the creation of an intelligence service that answered only to the President further aggravated the public. Haiti's shaky political situation also increased the violence by armed gangs across the country. Large parts of the country are now controlled by these gangs, and the police are rendered inefficient. With the spiralling inflation, worsening coronavirus pandemic, and scarcity of food and fuel – the economic and social crisis only worsened the situation.  

Fourth, the history of external interference in Haiti. International actors like the US and the UN have failed to stabilize Haitian politics despite their immense influence and long history of intervention. Despite the Biden administration's pledge to assist in the investigation, the US turned down Haiti's request for troops to help maintain security – stating they had no intention of providing military assistance at this juncture. Another matter of Haitian concern is the Colombian involvement – 17 of the 26 assailants involved had retired from the Colombian army. The play of double standards raises questions about foreign collusion.   

What does it mean?
The assassination has raised more questions over immediate and long term issues. With the power struggle already in motion – who will lead the country? The political crisis will exacerbate the security situation. Though Haiti would be looking for some international support to maintain order in the immediate future, the US is less likely to get involved. 
The deteriorating economic and social situation will only worsen the situation for Haiti.